Willie Shakes: Fantasy Laureate

When we're not embracing the world of fantasy sports or engaging in various psilocybin-based activities around these parts, we're continuously trying to improve our knowledge of the sports world around us.  Sometimes this can be difficult and so in those times we defer to the members of our intellectual class to provide the answers when all we have to offer is questions.  Now get your pencils and paper ready, children.  Because it's time for the triumphant return of Wille Shakes, Fantasy Mock Draft Laureate.

Well folks, what type of prognosticator would I be if I didn't take a shot at the NFL round 1 Mock Draft. I mean, EVERYBODY'S doing it...it's like coke in the 80's.  Mel Kiper eat your heart out..

1. Rams
Sam Bradford QB OK

Go on...

Curling Prospect #4: Wally White

Sure, America is not known for its Curling prowess, but you heard it here first, folks: The eagle is on the rise. 

In fact, the US government has been secretly ciphering money off to the United States Curling Association (USCA) in hopes of developing some serious talent for the 2014 games in Russia, in order to show Svetlana and company that we're here to dominate all sports and not just the snowboard competition.

Go on...

How Willie Shakes Out

We believe in two things and two things only here at FSD:

Sound advice & Accountability.

With that being said, we know this is your one-stop shop for all things fantasy sports.  Whether it is coming up with a name for your team, knowing to grab off the waiver wire, or planning your draft strategy, it is all here.  And prior to the start of the fantasy football season, we employed the services of high-borw fantasy laureate Willie Shakes in order to provide even better advice than we four (read: one) primates here at The Delay ever could.  So should Willie be employed in the future, or should we send him off to join the starving masses at the soup kitchen for the holidays? 

Let us allow his prognostications to make the decision for us:

Go on...

Willie Shakes: Fantasy Laureate

We embrace the world of fantasy sports here at FSD, much like we embrace porn. But given our track record, in fantasy football and not in the sack, we are in no position to give any sound advice on how you should approach your individual drafts. Therefore, we sought out the services of one Willie Shakes, who is going position by position, again, for fantasy football, not the sack, so that you know who to snag, and who to avoid. But Willie is a cultured lad who prefers to avoid using polarizing terms such as Love and Hate. Instead, well, you'll see...

Do it to us, Bill!


Running Backs

It's time to run with the backs....Note, no dreadlocks were harmed during the making of this post.

A note on 1st pick contemplation. I'm not overthinking this pick. If it's mine, I take the only back in the league with a shot at a 2,000 yard season. I know Purple Jesus has had some injuries, but as Tom Brady taught us, anyone can get injured on any play. While the Burner will contribute huge, the addition of Tony Gonzalez should lessen his value in the red zone. Turner is also coming off a 370 plus carry season. See Larry Johnson.


I'm going to do this slightly different than my other columns due to the amount of RB's that will go in the fist and second round.

Backs 1-14 as listed in the ESPN.com rankings are as follows:

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Michael Turner
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Matt Forte
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. LaDainian Tomlinson
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Frank Gore
10. Brandon Jacobs
11. Steve Slaton
12. Clinton Portis
13. Marion Barber
14. Brian Westbrook

In the first and second round I am disfavoring Steven Jackson, Jacobs, and Westbrook. I'd be happy with any other of the backs, and here is why:

Predator: The Rams flat out stunk last year, Jackson had 4 100 yard games and 7 double digit point games. NOT good enough for top 5 pick status. I don't see the rams getting any better this year. Bulger is out for multiple weeks with a broken pinky, and even when he gets back, there isn't a legitimate threat on that team to strech a defense. (yeah, Donny Avery really has teams shaking in their cleats). Without another threat on offense, Jackson will see 8 man front, after 8 man front.

B Jackal: He'll get a lot of red zone carries, but he won't stay healthy for 16 games. In his past two seasons, he's missed 9 games. Do you really want your 1st round pick out for 4-5 games this year? I'm not saying he won't have a solid year, likely he will, but I don't want to take a chance that big with my 1st round pick.

Old Man Westbrook: I'm pretty sure he helped write the ten commandments, he's that old.....or at least his body seems to feel that old. The addition of Mccoy, Vick (yes I said Vick, I'd add him to my Qb prefer list if I could) coupled with Maclin and Jackson, means less work for the aging Westbrook. He's an injury risk with a bunch of young talent around him.

As you can see from my three choices above, all of these guys will get drafted before pick 15 in all likelyhood. I'm not saying they shouldn't be...I'm just saying I won't.

A few other disfavorables:

Bush League: His offseason consisted of Micro-Fracture Knee surgery. Call that the equivalent of brain cancer in football career terms. His knee will never fully heal, and he will never be the same mediocre fantasy back he was. What? No, I'm not a doctor.... but I did work 4 years in my collegiate Athletic Training Department. Bush seems like a steal going at an avg of pick 65, and if you don't like the surroundings, by all means give Bush a shot but he doesn't start 12 games this year.

I'm not very high on Thomas Jones or Joseph Addai. Addai might be a buy low guy but both have additions of young and very talented backs. Jones is contending with Shonne Greene, a guy you'll find below, who is highly under-rated coming out of Iowa, watch for him to get a handful of goal line carries. Addai is teamed up with Donald Brown. A guy I am not super high on, but a very productive "do all" back out of the U....UCONN, baby.


Prefer:

CJ: I love CJ, he's a #5 pick in my book. Watch for increasing TD numbers, and 1500 rushing yards. A rookie last year, Johnson tallied four 100 yard games, and nine double digit point weeks. His explosiveness coupled with experience should help him increase numbers. I never said it, but the great Analyst/Therapist (analrapist) Tobias Funke once said that the greatest gains in a RB's career come between his rookie and sophomore seasons.

El Dee Tee: Don't let LT slip past you. Don't be worried by last year. LT will be LT this year. Sproles is going to play, but an LT nagged by injuries this year he will not be. He will not go softly into that great night. How do I know? Watch a few clips/highlights from his first preseason game (the first preseason game he's played in 4 seasons) he's not running out of bounds. He's hungry, and what my LT wants, my LT gets. Put him on the board.....Championship.

Port Gore: I lump these two together, Portis will get more carries, Gore will easily make up for that with receptions and receiving yards. Both of these guys will stay healthy (surprise) and both will have big years. Portis is simply consistent, and there isn't another real threat in his backfield to steal carries or TD's. RIP Sean Taylor. Gore will see a lot of action both in and out of the backfield. Defensive (read as Crazy) coach Singletary likes the kind of party where Gore gets 20 carries a game.

D. Will/Stew: I was solely high on Stewart, going avg pick 51, with nine double digit carry games last year, I saw Stewart as an emerging fantasy star. The guy can do it all, and he will for Caronlina again this year. The problem? I watched Williams carry the ball last night and realized that I have freakishly underestimated his speed/feet/vision. Last year in the first 8 games of the season Williams had 3 touchdowns....3....he scored 15 times between weeks 10-15. Ridiculous... But also freakisly unpredictable. Touchdowns cannot be predicted well, but Williams failed to have less than 10 carries in any game last year. This year I see Stewart getting his share of the load, meaning I'm not loving D. Will before pick 8 or 9, but I wouldn't let him outta the first round.

Grant: I like Grant in his second year as the real back in Green Bay. A full year removed from the Favre fiasco (guy ruins franchises better than any player in history). Grant will have his best year yet. Going at pick 37, I'm hoping he reaches the 4th round. If he does, he's my second fantasy back.


Mas Preferites:

Fast Willie
Ahmad Rashad Bradshaw
Lesean The Real
Bo Knowshon Moreno
Jamal Lewis... Wait, really?


All are going to have productive years. Parker is hugely undervalued, draft him. Bradshaw is going to get his carries, write it down. Mccoy is my #1 rookie back, he can do it all, loved him at Pitt. The problem is he's the "IT" back this year, more than anyone else. Don't reach for him, but if he's there in the 7-8th round area, I scoop him up. Knowshon is a talent, and I love talent. Jamel?..jam? Jamal? Ugliest pick here, he's not pretty, but the man will get his carries. I hate watching him run, but he's a great guy to have on your bench.

Promising

Shonn Greene is my pick for this years Steve Slaton. (honerable mention: Mccoy)

Willie Shakes: Fantasy Laureate

We embrace the world of fantasy sports here at FSD, much like we embrace porn. But given our track record, in fantasy football and not in the sack, we are in no position to give any sound advice on how you should approach your individual drafts. Therefore, we sought out the services of one Willie Shakes, who is going position by position, again, for fantasy football, not the sack, so that you know who to snag, and who to avoid. But Willie is a cultured lad who prefers to avoid using polarizing terms such as Love and Hate. Instead, well, you'll see...

Do it to us, Bill!


Wide Receivers

Prefer:

This year is the year of the 1st Round WR. Larry (we're on a first name basis) was a standout last year and is worthy of first round pick status. I'd also put Andre Johnson in my top ten without hesitation. Watch out, because everyone seems to be feeling this way, and WRs might run off the board incredibly fast.

For my first few selections, there is little need for supportive stats....

Larry: I'd consider taking him at pick 6 or lower in my first round. An absolute beast, with two other dangerous WRs around him, there just aren't enough DB's to cover them all. One guy who's worth the hype. Seven 100+ yard games, 12 double digit point weeks.

The Johnson: If Fitzgerald is gone, The Johnson is the pick. If your not in the top 5, get one of these guys and be happy with your first round. Eight 100+ yard games, eleven double digit point weeks.

If somehow you get a chance to land both of these guys, then DO NOT hesitate. (A 10th and 11th pick I'd dream about...and wake up wet)

Also don't think twice about The Ancient Chinese Secret, Mossfro or Rowdy Roddy in the second/third round. Yes... Roddy White...Seven 100 yard games, nine double digit point weeks last year. Go back and check out the two years before that too....quietly a solid #1 receiver and a great #2. This is the year of the WR. (Get two with your first three picks if these guys are out there).

And now for the less obvious...

E Roy: I'm high on Romo (and PCP) and it's mostly due to the potential Roy'myboy has. He will avoid double coverage due to the wealth of 8 man fronts the boys will see this year. Mark it down...top 5 #'s for WR this year.....IF Romo stays healthy.

White Walter: 8 Td's and 6 double digit point games last year. Johnson draws a lot of attention, and Walter doesn't miss opportunities. Top five in redzone targets last year, look for Walter in the 8th round or later for great value.

Hester Skester: If you read my QB edition of Love/Hate, I pointed out a few things about Hester.

1. He has great hair.

2. He more than doubled his receptions in his first three years (20) with his 51 receptions last year.

3. Kyle Orton was his QB.

4. Jay Cutler is now his QB.

Look for Hester to have a surprise year, I'm talking 70 catches....and predicting 85. Try overthrowing this guy, Mr. Cutler you shaggy dog you....

Ginn Jr...haha, no. But, Percy Harvin: Is lighting up Vikings camp to the tune of "nearly un-coverable". According to the scouts (I haven't seen him personally, but have been looking for him on twitter), the most impressive thing about Harvin is his explosive route running. In any league that gives points to players for return yards take a shot at this guy. Not to mention Childress has already talked about getting him the ball from different areas on the field much like they did at Florida.

DISCLAIMER: Florida WR's suck. Reggie Bush type players suck. BUT, what if??? I guess that's why we keep going back to these guys year after year. If he's there in the 11th or 12th I think he's mine....in the 14th, he's on my team no doubt.

A quick note on the Best Player in last year's NFL Draft:

Crabby Patty: He'll likely get drafted in the 7th or 8th round by someone in your draft, (currently going 108 on ESPN). The guy is huge and has tons of talent. If I can scoop him late, I do, but not until after the tenth. Who is throwing him the ball? Tiny hands Alex Smith? Or that fat looking white guy? I have noticed that he's on most of my Mock Draft boards, but I'm a sucker for that kind of young talent... Ahem.

Keep your eye on the waiver wire for these 2 guys...

The Other Steve Smith: There is a big hole to fill in NY, and something tells me Smith's 6-7 catch a game avg, will turn into 9-12 a game. Could be a fill in 3rd option in your Yahoo leagues.

Juaquin Iglesias: I know, another rookie WR....But with Hester, Olsen and Forte taking pressure off of Cutler, Iglesias in the slot could be a dominant force. Write that down.

Disfavor:

Bowe, yo: He plays in KC, he's their only real threat, and he's got a new QB learning a new system. Also, a lack of Gonzo to garner attention from safety's provides more double coverage for. Don't pass on Colston, Boldin, or TO... I'd even say Welker, and definitely Roy Will before Bowe. Too much uncertainty in KC. Not to mention only two 100 yard games last year.

Marshall Law: Loved Marshall last year.... Now that Orton is in town.... Not so much. New system and a disgruntled prima donna receiver = sinking numbers. I wouldn't bet my house on it (I am a gambler at heart), but I'm staying clear of Marshall for a safer pick here.

Stonehands: He spent too much time last year hocking 5 hour energy (all the energy, without the crash) and proceeded to drop every ball in sight. While his upside could be huge? (I think? he had a great year one time right?) The QB carousel, and his severe case of the drops leaves Braylon off my team.

--

Thanks, Bill. Now, where do you think you are going? To get food? Nah, friend. I'm going to need some notes on running backs and very soon. Drafts are right around the corner. Mel Kiper goes 3 months without food. All I'm asking for is 2 weeks from you. Now, hop to it!

Willie Shakes: Fantasy Laureate

We embrace the world of fantasy sports here at FSD, much like we embrace porn. But given our track record, in fantasy football and not in the sack, we are in no position to give any sound advice on how you should approach your individual drafts. Therefore, we sought out the services of one Willie Shakes, who is going position by position, again, for fantasy football, not the sack, so that you know who to snag, and who to avoid. But Willie is a cultured lad who prefers to avoid using polarizing terms such as Love and Hate. Instead, well, you'll see...

Do it to us, Bill!



Quarterbacks

Prefer:

Mcflab: Eagles had a very strong draft, pairing last year's rookie Desean Jackson with the burner Maclin out of Mizzou. They also drafted a young RB out of Pitt, in Mccoy, who will make an instant impact. What this means for Mcnabb is targets, and that he's got more of them, making him more valuable. In the past three seasons Mcnabb has averaged 1975 yards, 10 td's and 3 int's in the first 7 games of each season. Not spectacular but, over that same span, the number one rated qb on many boards this year (Drew Brees) averaged 2060 yards, 12 td and 8 int's. Not much different than a guy you can grab in the 6 or 7th round. One thing to remember for Mcnabb is his injury issues, which is why you should back him up with something decent (Say, Michael Vick?), and look to deal Mcnabb at his highest value, somewhere around week 6 depending on how your team looks.

Talented Mr. Romo: His production would make him a second round QB, while his distractions and inability to get it done in December leave him hanging in the green room until at least round 4 (ESPN avg pic 45). Romo loses TO (just over 30% of his passes were targeted for him last year) but gains an entire offseason of work with Roy E. Williams, and his dynamic TE duo of Witten/Bennett. The bottom line is the Cowboys offense still has a solid O line, a monster backfield, a double shot of pass catching TE's and oh...Roy Williams. The numbers will be there, because the offense will be balanced. Romo far exceeds his 4th round billing.

C Bomb: New team? Yes but that isn't necessarily a downside. Take, for example, the fact that the Bears run a similar offensive scheme to Vanderbilt, Jay's college of choice. Familiarity with the offensive scheme means less of a drop off in consistency. His receivers consist of Devin Hester and Rashied Davis. Hester is becoming an increasingly more valuable WR option, he's got blazing speed and catches fairly well. In his first 3 years in the league Hester had 20 receptions. Last year alone he reached 51, with Kyle Orton throwing him the ball. Cutler's tandom of TE's Clark and the emerging Greg Olsen provide red zone targets. Having a first round fantasy back that catches the ball (63 receptions for 477 yards) helps too. Cutler's numbers make waiting on a QB a better option.

I'm working to have one of those three guys on my Squad, with Romo currently going around 45th, Mcnabb 57th, and Cutler 71st. On an ideal team I get Romo or Mcnabb and scoop Cutler in the 7th, likely making my 5th and 7th, or 6th and 7th pick's qbs. (Due to the depth at TE, I don't have to pick one up until the 9th or 10th, providing me the ability to draft like this, but more on that later.)

Disfavor:

Disclaimer: Unless otherwise mentioned, I don't actually think these guys will have a bad year, I simply feel their value at the position you'd have to take them (in order to get them) simply doesn't match that of other position players in the same spot.

Tommy Touchdown: I'm not a Pats fan, but I love Brady, the way he plays the position is nearly perfect all around. That being said, he's coming off a terrible injury, with a guy who's never been injured (missed multiple games due to injury). He missed an entire year of football. He's still on a great team, with a great WR duo, and a coach who will throw 45 times a game without blinking. I'd still put him on the board for 4k and 30 Td's, IF he's actually 100% healthy. Is he 100%? when the proverbial bullets start flying, will he be the ice in the veins Brady he was? Eh..probably, but he isn't worth the risk with your first round, or second round pick. Those picks need production, they have to be in your lineup every week and I'm not convinced Tom is 100% back.

Ps. If he's there in the third round, I pull the trigger, and blow up my entire draft strategy cause he's gorgeous and so is his wife, I'd fuck em' both and tape it. (entirely un-gay)

ManMeat: Bad Knee, weak/hurt O line, new coaching staff, Sprint commercials...I'm staying away from Peyton. To many if's, and remember how badly he suffered at the beginning of last season with a gimpy knee and a shuffling O-Line. Likely still very productive, but at the pick 17 avg he's going....I'll take Barber/Portis/Calvin Johnson/Moss in a heartbeat over Peyton.

Schaub Bluth: Going around pick 65, you may be in a Shaub mood for a 6th round QB. I say stay away. The guy simply cannot stay healthy 22-32 possible starts in his two seasons at Houston. Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and Slaton make him an appealing choice, but not as my starter, give me Culter here all day.

Vanilla Ice: Matty Heisman's got ice water in his veins, and coaches say he has that "It" factor (nobody can define the "it" factor, it's just "It"). That doesn't mean anything in fantasy football. In a game all about numbers, Ryan is going 20 slots higher than Mr. Cutler (who has a sick haircut). Looking at last years numbers, Ryan, as a rookie, put up double digit fantasy points in 10 games, with three games of 10 or 12 and one over 20. Mr. Cutler (did I say he was going pick 71?) put up double digit points in all but three games, including 5 games over 20 (and three of 30,27,29). Ryan is going to high... Too high.

Inconclusive:

Big Chief Cassel: I'm on the fence, mostly due to a lack of valuable games to assess his long term abilities, coupled with the fact that KC blows. D. Bowe is nasty, and uh....is Dante Hall still there? No? I just can't say that LJ will show up, or that KC will run the ball with any sort of consistency. I've seen over the years that coaches in NE are a cut above, and I am not sure Cassel wasn't just part of a superior passing system. I'm staying away, the departure of Gonzo, a sub par D and O-line make KC a sinkhole for talent.

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Thanks, Bill. Now get back into your cage, I mean study, and get us some Wide Receiver advice. I got drafts lining up around the block and they don't intend to wait around for much longer.