Deadly Manuevers

What's the going rate for a 23 year-old point guard that averages a near double-double every game, has plenty of playoff experience, and a championship ring to boot? Apparently not much in the eyes of the average Celtics fan.

Take a look at Rondo's 08-09 per game stats:

12 points - 8.2 assists - 5.2 rebs - 1.86 steals

In relation to all point guards this season, Rondo ranked:

3rd in rebounds (Behind Paul and Kidd)
2nd in rebounds per 48 minutes
3rd in offensive rebounds
5th in total assists
5th in total steals
2nd in FG% (Avg. 10 attempts per game)

And had fewer Turnovers than Chris Paul, Deron Williams, or Steve Nash

In relation to all guards, Rondo ranked:

6th in rebounds (behind Kobe Bryant and Andre Iguodala)
5th in offensive rebounds

Plus, these numbers (Pts, Assts, Rebs AND FG%) have risen each year since he has been in the league, and why should they not continue to do the same in years to come? Especially when he is only 23 years old, and is nowhere near his peak.

And just take a quick look at his 2009 Playoff numbers:

17 points - 10 assists - 10 rebounds - 2.5 steals (Yes, a Trip-Dub average)

Best Ast/TO ratio of performing PG's*
2nd best St/TO ratio of performing PG's*

(Performing PG's, meaning ample playing time)

The point of all this is, do not kid yourself; Rondo is a very good basketball player who is still on the upswing and has valuable experience in the league, and is a top 5 point guard in the NBA, right NOW. (Paul, Williams, Kidd, Parker...)


The Argument:


The Celtics run is obviously coming to an end. Ray Allen becomes a free agent at the end of the 2010 season. Paul Pierce is getting older and is a free agent/potential retiree at the end of the 2011 season. KG is getting older and will his body hold up if he continues to be the focal point of both the offense and defense?

So what does the future hold, talent-wise and financially for the Celtics?

Everyone knows what is coming around the corner...

2011 Free Agent List:

Lebron James
Dwayne Wade
Dirk Nowitzki
Yao
Pau
Amare
Shane Battier
Chris Bosh

... To name a few.

This is a bigger lottery than any draft could ever provide. The goal here for many teams in the next year is to dump as much money as possible. It's like a big game of Hearts. Dump your high cards, and give them all to the sucker (who has no chance of shooting the moon) so that you can afford to purchase the services of one or some of those superstars mentioned above.

In 2 years time, Rondo is also a free agent. No doubt, the Celtics will need to offer Rondo some serious money, and potentially a max contract. So, is it then wiser to trade (dump) Rondo now while his stock is high in order to avoid this showdown, and as a result, get something in return? And all the while, ensure that you don't take on too many long-term salaries that could impede entrance into the 2011 rodeo?

It seems that this is the idea if this recent trade proposal with the Pistons:

Ray Allen (2009: 18 million, 2010: FA)
Rajon Rondo (2009: 2.6 million, 2010: 3.7 million, 2011: FA? Max deal?)

for

Rip Hamilton (2009: 11 million, 2010: FA)
Tayshaun Prince (2009: 10 million, 2010: 11 million, 2011: Free Agent)
Rodney Stuckey (2009: 1.8 million, 2010: 2.7 million, 2011: 3.8 million, 2012: FA)

So, the Celtics shed Ray Ray's contract early in order to maintain competitiveness in the East, without taking on any long-term, cap heavy contracts. AND, avoid a future collision with Rondo by trading him away and gaining a serviceable to good point guard for the next few years to come. And of course, keeping them well in the hunt for some 12-point buck in 2011.

2009 Starting Lineup?

PG Stuckey
SG Pierce
SF Prince
PF Garnett
C Perkins

6th Hamilton


The Real Zone:


Rip's 2009 playoff stats:
13 pts, 5 assts, 3 rebs

Tayshaun's 2009 playoff stats:
4 pts, 1 asst, 3.5 rebs

Stuckey's 2009 playoff stats:
15 pts, 5 assts, 2 rebs

And a combined 4-game sweep.

To be honest, this just feels like shuffling the deck. Are the Celtics slightly better next year as a result of this trade? Maybe, if the chemistry works. They get younger and have more insurance in case a Pierce injury occurs. Also, they avoid Rondo contract negotiations and a potential huge contract on the books. But, come the end of next season, aren't the Celtics still in the same boat? Ray Ray's contract is gone regardless of the trade possibilities this season. Pierce is still signed through that year, in addition to the new Prince and Stuckey contracts. And if Stuckey continues his improvement, then what stops him from demanding big money come the end of 2011? Either way, if/when a big time free agent comes through the door in 2010, the Celtics still could be left looking for a point guard what's it all said and done? So, in neither the short term, nor the long-term do the Celtics appear to be better off.


The Case for Leaving it the Fuck Alone


All teams need to replenish their talent in time. This can be done via the draft, trade, or free agency. Free agency is often the quickest method of doing this (see Celtics pre-2008, then post-2008), because development and risk are removed from the equation. However, chemistry is no guarantee. The teams, that have been successful over the last few years have all had great chemistry. The teams that have fallen short (Cavs, Lakers in 2008) have not. The Pistons seems to have zero chemistry these days which would seem to be the root cause as to why there have been in such rapid decline over the last two years. So, why even try and bring on these additional players?

If the goal is winning, and preferably, winning championships, then you want to set yourself up for this by going with What works, or in other words, the safest bet. Now, if the Celtics set themselves up properly for 2011, then they could certainly land a big star. However, what will the supporting cast look like? Will it look like the Cavaliers? One star, and a bunch of serviceable role players? How's that working out so far? This seems to be how everything is shaping up with the shedding of Ray, Paul, and Rondo and the addition of less-proven players (whether it's the half of the Pistons starters, or some young guns from Memphis).

Instead, why not keep your young, proven, potentially elite point guard and roll with him? You have not one, but two HUGE contracts coming off the books in two years time, and next year you still have basically the same championship team from a year ago. Meaning, they can still compete for a title next year, and in two years (no matter what Rondo gets or does not get), you are still in contention to land a big free agent, using Pierce's money. And then, you have at least one year of KG, Rondo, and a big time (and hopefully young) free agent to be named later. A pretty solid core, this is shaping up to be. A draft pick here, another free agent there and you have yourself not just a solid supporting cast, but you have yourself an elite point guard, an all-world Power Forward, and a superstar.

Check the math, sort it out, and get back to me. I want Rondo on my team. I need Rondo on my team.