Friday, April 3, 2009

MLB Divisional Previews


The Easy East



The best division in baseball? Maybe. One always has to be careful when applying measures of objectivity to an absolutely subjective notion. But, that's never really stopped us before, and really, why should it for the duration of our little walk down the avenue of life?

So yes, best division in baseball. Why? Objective statistics:

The records from the AL East last year:

G Rays 97-65 Bo Sox 95-67 Skanks 89-73 Habs 86-76 Bmore 68-93

Aside from that little blemish in Maryland (and when is that ever not the case?) each of the top 4 stack up very well against the rest of the League.

For example, were the Blue Jays in the AL Central they would have finished 2.5 games behind the White Sox for the division. Just 1.5 games behind the Twins. The Yankees? Well, they would have won the division (Aaaand they won the season series against the Chi Sox 5-2). And let's not even discuss that embarrassment out West (well, looks like we already did).

Moral of the story is that while these 5 teams are not busy beating up on one another, they are off hammering the rest of baseball. So, East Coast bias be fucked, this is real deal metrics, and y'all just been served.

To the predictions!

(It's more pleasant to start from the bottom)


5. Oreo's

I prefer not to spend too much time on this waste of organization to be honest. Harsh? Yes. Deserved? Also, yes. This team was awful last year, and what did they do this off-season in response to such a dreadful performance? They sign DL all-star Rich Hill formerly of Cubs fame, Tony Gwynn look-a-like Cesar Izturis, and of course Kevin Millar's replacement, Ty Wigginton. This will earn them approximately 1-2 more wins this year. Fortunately for Baltimore's "frugal" management team, no moving costs will be accrued, since they'll be remaining in the basement for at least one more year.

4. BJ's

Dirty little secret: Blue Jays were my favorite team as a small boy. Fred McGriff, Joe Carter, Gruber, Fernandez, White, Alomar... I loved it. But there's not much to love about this team nowadays. Why? Because the Blue Jays third best hitter is named Overbay. While there is plenty to love about this team's starting pitching and bullpen, even with the loss of Burnett, they just will not have the bats to stay in it. Against the arms in Boston, Tampa, and New York, they will simply not be able to score enough runs, even with the addition of the mighty Scott Rolen. Blue Jays will once again finish above .500, but that won't be enough. Perhaps if the Blue Jays move to Vancouver, and shift over to the AL West, but as of right now, their fortunes will continue to remain limited.

3. G Rays

If you kept up on the Rays over the last few years, then their success in 2008 only should have come a small surprise. The Rays had been building a small, yet formidable army over the last 5 years, centering around young, athletic bats and young, solid arms with high-potential. With the addition of Longoria to the lineup, they begun to hit for power. With the addition of Garza, they brought attitude to the rotation. And even without the services of their ace early in the season, the Rays were able to remain competitive and at the top of the division.

So what changes this year? Nothing more than the law of the World Series burn out. Call them the 2008 Rockies. Even though the G Rays are way better than the 2008 Rockies, they still play in the AL East, and due to the fact that both the Yankees and Red Sox are improved, they simply will not be able to replicate last year's success either due to injury and/or sophomore slumpage. Of course, I said the same thing last year...


2. Skankonia

Goodbye chubby Giambi and injury-riddled Pavano! Hello chubby CC and... injury-riddled... Burnett? Oh, and apparently they picked up some other guy named "Tex". And so the Yankees appear to be scary once again, but for this cat, it just seems like there are more question marks than guarantees. Can CC's arm hold up after pitching over 250 innings in 2008? Will the Yanks aging veteran core remain healthy? When did A Rod do steroids again? Is Hank serious? Will Phil Hughes finally get it together? Can Cano take a pitch for once? Regardless, New York's firepower and seemingly endless supply of resources should be enough to keep them competitive in the divisional and Wild Card races... But let's hope not.

1. Sux Nation

The story of the Sox begins in the rotation. Indeed, they may be the first team in Major League history to utilize a 7-man rotation. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke-san, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz. Oh, that's only 6 you say? Okay, well how about Clay Buchholz or Justin Masterson? It's a formidable staff even if/when a few things go wrong. And then there is the bullpen. Delcarmen and Okajima are pen fixtures in Boston. Plus, they've added an extra closer by bringing on Saito to lighten any undue burdens for that wicked annoying closer they have. It's rare to consider a team's pitching staff as a source of firepower, but in this case, it could be warranted.

However, the big question for the Sox this year will still be, can the offense be sustained without the services of Manny? Ortiz was hurt last year, or is unable to perform without Manny's protection. While Youkilis and Pedroia were out of control last year, will they drive in the necessary runs if their pitchers don't quite perform as well as (this asshole) predicts? And who the shit is Jason Bay? Nevertheless, if Jacoby remembers how to hit and Lowell can stay at least a little healthy, with their pitching prowess, the Sox should have the bats to get past most opponents, most of the time, and even if only by a little bit.

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