Friday, August 14, 2009

Willie Shakes: Fantasy Laureate

We embrace the world of fantasy sports here at FSD, much like we embrace porn. But given our track record, in fantasy football and not in the sack, we are in no position to give any sound advice on how you should approach your individual drafts. Therefore, we sought out the services of one Willie Shakes, who is going position by position, again, for fantasy football, not the sack, so that you know who to snag, and who to avoid. But Willie is a cultured lad who prefers to avoid using polarizing terms such as Love and Hate. Instead, well, you'll see...

Do it to us, Bill!



Quarterbacks

Prefer:

Mcflab: Eagles had a very strong draft, pairing last year's rookie Desean Jackson with the burner Maclin out of Mizzou. They also drafted a young RB out of Pitt, in Mccoy, who will make an instant impact. What this means for Mcnabb is targets, and that he's got more of them, making him more valuable. In the past three seasons Mcnabb has averaged 1975 yards, 10 td's and 3 int's in the first 7 games of each season. Not spectacular but, over that same span, the number one rated qb on many boards this year (Drew Brees) averaged 2060 yards, 12 td and 8 int's. Not much different than a guy you can grab in the 6 or 7th round. One thing to remember for Mcnabb is his injury issues, which is why you should back him up with something decent (Say, Michael Vick?), and look to deal Mcnabb at his highest value, somewhere around week 6 depending on how your team looks.

Talented Mr. Romo: His production would make him a second round QB, while his distractions and inability to get it done in December leave him hanging in the green room until at least round 4 (ESPN avg pic 45). Romo loses TO (just over 30% of his passes were targeted for him last year) but gains an entire offseason of work with Roy E. Williams, and his dynamic TE duo of Witten/Bennett. The bottom line is the Cowboys offense still has a solid O line, a monster backfield, a double shot of pass catching TE's and oh...Roy Williams. The numbers will be there, because the offense will be balanced. Romo far exceeds his 4th round billing.

C Bomb: New team? Yes but that isn't necessarily a downside. Take, for example, the fact that the Bears run a similar offensive scheme to Vanderbilt, Jay's college of choice. Familiarity with the offensive scheme means less of a drop off in consistency. His receivers consist of Devin Hester and Rashied Davis. Hester is becoming an increasingly more valuable WR option, he's got blazing speed and catches fairly well. In his first 3 years in the league Hester had 20 receptions. Last year alone he reached 51, with Kyle Orton throwing him the ball. Cutler's tandom of TE's Clark and the emerging Greg Olsen provide red zone targets. Having a first round fantasy back that catches the ball (63 receptions for 477 yards) helps too. Cutler's numbers make waiting on a QB a better option.

I'm working to have one of those three guys on my Squad, with Romo currently going around 45th, Mcnabb 57th, and Cutler 71st. On an ideal team I get Romo or Mcnabb and scoop Cutler in the 7th, likely making my 5th and 7th, or 6th and 7th pick's qbs. (Due to the depth at TE, I don't have to pick one up until the 9th or 10th, providing me the ability to draft like this, but more on that later.)

Disfavor:

Disclaimer: Unless otherwise mentioned, I don't actually think these guys will have a bad year, I simply feel their value at the position you'd have to take them (in order to get them) simply doesn't match that of other position players in the same spot.

Tommy Touchdown: I'm not a Pats fan, but I love Brady, the way he plays the position is nearly perfect all around. That being said, he's coming off a terrible injury, with a guy who's never been injured (missed multiple games due to injury). He missed an entire year of football. He's still on a great team, with a great WR duo, and a coach who will throw 45 times a game without blinking. I'd still put him on the board for 4k and 30 Td's, IF he's actually 100% healthy. Is he 100%? when the proverbial bullets start flying, will he be the ice in the veins Brady he was? Eh..probably, but he isn't worth the risk with your first round, or second round pick. Those picks need production, they have to be in your lineup every week and I'm not convinced Tom is 100% back.

Ps. If he's there in the third round, I pull the trigger, and blow up my entire draft strategy cause he's gorgeous and so is his wife, I'd fuck em' both and tape it. (entirely un-gay)

ManMeat: Bad Knee, weak/hurt O line, new coaching staff, Sprint commercials...I'm staying away from Peyton. To many if's, and remember how badly he suffered at the beginning of last season with a gimpy knee and a shuffling O-Line. Likely still very productive, but at the pick 17 avg he's going....I'll take Barber/Portis/Calvin Johnson/Moss in a heartbeat over Peyton.

Schaub Bluth: Going around pick 65, you may be in a Shaub mood for a 6th round QB. I say stay away. The guy simply cannot stay healthy 22-32 possible starts in his two seasons at Houston. Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and Slaton make him an appealing choice, but not as my starter, give me Culter here all day.

Vanilla Ice: Matty Heisman's got ice water in his veins, and coaches say he has that "It" factor (nobody can define the "it" factor, it's just "It"). That doesn't mean anything in fantasy football. In a game all about numbers, Ryan is going 20 slots higher than Mr. Cutler (who has a sick haircut). Looking at last years numbers, Ryan, as a rookie, put up double digit fantasy points in 10 games, with three games of 10 or 12 and one over 20. Mr. Cutler (did I say he was going pick 71?) put up double digit points in all but three games, including 5 games over 20 (and three of 30,27,29). Ryan is going to high... Too high.

Inconclusive:

Big Chief Cassel: I'm on the fence, mostly due to a lack of valuable games to assess his long term abilities, coupled with the fact that KC blows. D. Bowe is nasty, and uh....is Dante Hall still there? No? I just can't say that LJ will show up, or that KC will run the ball with any sort of consistency. I've seen over the years that coaches in NE are a cut above, and I am not sure Cassel wasn't just part of a superior passing system. I'm staying away, the departure of Gonzo, a sub par D and O-line make KC a sinkhole for talent.

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Thanks, Bill. Now get back into your cage, I mean study, and get us some Wide Receiver advice. I got drafts lining up around the block and they don't intend to wait around for much longer.


2 comments:

  1. Wait, the UFL fantasy preview is on the way soon.

    What's that? That's JP Losman I'm thinking of? What's your point?

    ReplyDelete