Do it to us, Bill!
Running Backs
It's time to run with the backs....Note, no dreadlocks were harmed during the making of this post.
A note on 1st pick contemplation. I'm not overthinking this pick. If it's mine, I take the only back in the league with a shot at a 2,000 yard season. I know Purple Jesus has had some injuries, but as Tom Brady taught us, anyone can get injured on any play. While the Burner will contribute huge, the addition of Tony Gonzalez should lessen his value in the red zone. Turner is also coming off a 370 plus carry season. See Larry Johnson.
I'm going to do this slightly different than my other columns due to the amount of RB's that will go in the fist and second round.
Backs 1-14 as listed in the ESPN.com rankings are as follows:
- Adrian Peterson
- Michael Turner
- Maurice Jones-Drew
- Matt Forte
- Steven Jackson
- Chris Johnson
- LaDainian Tomlinson
- DeAngelo Williams
- Frank Gore
- Brandon Jacobs
- Steve Slaton
- Clinton Portis
- Marion Barber
- Brian Westbrook
In the first and second round I am disfavoring Steven Jackson, Jacobs, and Westbrook. I'd be happy with any other of the backs, and here is why:
Predator: The Rams flat out stunk last year, Jackson had 4 100 yard games and 7 double digit point games. NOT good enough for top 5 pick status. I don't see the rams getting any better this year. Bulger is out for multiple weeks with a broken pinky, and even when he gets back, there isn't a legitimate threat on that team to strech a defense. (yeah, Donny Avery really has teams shaking in their cleats). Without another threat on offense, Jackson will see 8 man front, after 8 man front.
B Jackal: He'll get a lot of red zone carries, but he won't stay healthy for 16 games. In his past two seasons, he's missed 9 games. Do you really want your 1st round pick out for 4-5 games this year? I'm not saying he won't have a solid year, likely he will, but I don't want to take a chance that big with my 1st round pick.
Old Man Westbrook: I'm pretty sure he helped write the ten commandments, he's that old.....or at least his body seems to feel that old. The addition of Mccoy, Vick (yes I said Vick, I'd add him to my Qb prefer list if I could) coupled with Maclin and Jackson, means less work for the aging Westbrook. He's an injury risk with a bunch of young talent around him.
As you can see from my three choices above, all of these guys will get drafted before pick 15 in all likelyhood. I'm not saying they shouldn't be...I'm just saying I won't.
A few other disfavorables:
Bush League: His offseason consisted of Micro-Fracture Knee surgery. Call that the equivalent of brain cancer in football career terms. His knee will never fully heal, and he will never be the same mediocre fantasy back he was. What? No, I'm not a doctor.... but I did work 4 years in my collegiate Athletic Training Department. Bush seems like a steal going at an avg of pick 65, and if you don't like the surroundings, by all means give Bush a shot but he doesn't start 12 games this year.
I'm not very high on Thomas Jones or Joseph Addai. Addai might be a buy low guy but both have additions of young and very talented backs. Jones is contending with Shonne Greene, a guy you'll find below, who is highly under-rated coming out of Iowa, watch for him to get a handful of goal line carries. Addai is teamed up with Donald Brown. A guy I am not super high on, but a very productive "do all" back out of the U....UCONN, baby.
Prefer:
CJ: I love CJ, he's a #5 pick in my book. Watch for increasing TD numbers, and 1500 rushing yards. A rookie last year, Johnson tallied four 100 yard games, and nine double digit point weeks. His explosiveness coupled with experience should help him increase numbers. I never said it, but the great Analyst/Therapist (analrapist) Tobias Funke once said that the greatest gains in a RB's career come between his rookie and sophomore seasons.
El Dee Tee: Don't let LT slip past you. Don't be worried by last year. LT will be LT this year. Sproles is going to play, but an LT nagged by injuries this year he will not be. He will not go softly into that great night. How do I know? Watch a few clips/highlights from his first preseason game (the first preseason game he's played in 4 seasons) he's not running out of bounds. He's hungry, and what my LT wants, my LT gets. Put him on the board.....Championship.
Port Gore: I lump these two together, Portis will get more carries, Gore will easily make up for that with receptions and receiving yards. Both of these guys will stay healthy (surprise) and both will have big years. Portis is simply consistent, and there isn't another real threat in his backfield to steal carries or TD's. RIP Sean Taylor. Gore will see a lot of action both in and out of the backfield. Defensive (read as Crazy) coach Singletary likes the kind of party where Gore gets 20 carries a game.
D. Will/Stew: I was solely high on Stewart, going avg pick 51, with nine double digit carry games last year, I saw Stewart as an emerging fantasy star. The guy can do it all, and he will for Caronlina again this year. The problem? I watched Williams carry the ball last night and realized that I have freakishly underestimated his speed/feet/vision. Last year in the first 8 games of the season Williams had 3 touchdowns....3....he scored 15 times between weeks 10-15. Ridiculous... But also freakisly unpredictable. Touchdowns cannot be predicted well, but Williams failed to have less than 10 carries in any game last year. This year I see Stewart getting his share of the load, meaning I'm not loving D. Will before pick 8 or 9, but I wouldn't let him outta the first round.
Grant: I like Grant in his second year as the real back in Green Bay. A full year removed from the Favre fiasco (guy ruins franchises better than any player in history). Grant will have his best year yet. Going at pick 37, I'm hoping he reaches the 4th round. If he does, he's my second fantasy back.
Mas Preferites:
Fast Willie
Ahmad Rashad Bradshaw
Lesean The Real
Bo Knowshon Moreno
Jamal Lewis... Wait, really?
All are going to have productive years. Parker is hugely undervalued, draft him. Bradshaw is going to get his carries, write it down. Mccoy is my #1 rookie back, he can do it all, loved him at Pitt. The problem is he's the "IT" back this year, more than anyone else. Don't reach for him, but if he's there in the 7-8th round area, I scoop him up. Knowshon is a talent, and I love talent. Jamel?..jam? Jamal? Ugliest pick here, he's not pretty, but the man will get his carries. I hate watching him run, but he's a great guy to have on your bench.
Promising
Shonn Greene is my pick for this years Steve Slaton. (honerable mention: Mccoy)
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